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SHFE tin prices hit bottom and rebounded; downstream enterprises were cautious in restocking [SMM Tin Morning News]

iconJul 10, 2025 08:51
Source:SMM
SHFE tin prices hit bottom and rebounded; downstream enterprises were cautious in restocking [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Apple's global PC shipments in Q2 2025 saw the highest growth among the top five producers. Apple shipped 6.2 million Macs in the quarter, up 21.4% from 5.1 million units in the same period last year, far surpassing other major PC producers. (Bullish ★) (2) In July, from the perspective of the domestic market, the sales performance of monitors during the "618" shopping festival exceeded expectations. However, as sales promotions ended, the domestic monitor market entered a demand adjustment period. Coupled with the continued tightening of national subsidy policies, consumer activity was further suppressed. In the North American market, due to the further transfer of manufacturing costs to end-user retail prices, the end-use market performed weakly. Brand producers still focused on inventory control as their core strategy. Meanwhile, as the tariff exemption period approached its end, policy adjustments might trigger supply chain fluctuations. Brand producers had strong wait-and-see sentiment and were cautious in panel procurement. It is expected that overall market demand will contract MoM in July. (Bearish ★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology opened a "Window for Online Reporting of Issues Related to Key Automakers' Commitments to Payment Terms" today (the 9th). The window mainly accepts four types of issues: First, key automakers failing to fulfill their commitments to a 60-day payment term, with payment terms stipulated in procurement contracts exceeding 60 days; second, key automakers setting unreasonable start times for payment terms, delaying the issuance of inspection or acceptance certificates without valid reasons, thereby extending payment terms in disguise, as well as using the receipt of third-party payments as a condition for payment or making payments in proportion to third-party payments. (Bullish ★)

July 10, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) rebounded after hitting bottom in the night session, fluctuating upward to around 264,300 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.28% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Apple ranked first among the top five producers in terms of global PC shipment growth in Q2 2025. The company shipped 6.2 million Macs, up 21.4% YoY from 5.1 million, far exceeding other major PC makers. (Bullish★) (2) In July, domestic monitor sales exceeded expectations during the "618" promotion, but demand entered an adjustment period post-promotion, compounded by tightening subsidy policies that further dampened consumption. In North America, rising manufacturing costs passed through to retail prices weakened end-use market performance, prompting brands to prioritize inventory control. With tariff exemptions nearing expiration, potential policy adjustments may disrupt supply chains, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and cautious panel procurement. Overall demand is expected to contract MoM. (Bearish★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an "online window for reporting issues related to key automakers' payment period commitments" on the 9th. The window accepts four types of complaints: key automakers failing to honor the 60-day payment commitment by exceeding this period in procurement contracts; setting unreasonable payment start dates; delaying inspection/acceptance certificates to extend payment terms; or making payments contingent on third-party receipts/proportional payments. (Bullish★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, lowering operating rates for some producers. Electronics: End-users in south China entered the off-season amid high tin prices, sustaining only essential orders amid strong wait-and-see sentiment. Other sectors: Steady demand for tinplate and chemicals without unexpected growth.

Spot market: Traders reported lukewarm spot transactions yesterday despite SHFE tin prices briefly hitting 260,000 yuan. Most downstream enterprises restocked cautiously, with the majority trading 1-2 truckloads and a few exceeding 3 truckloads.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise independent judgment, and SMM bears no responsibility for decisions made based on this content.]

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