SHFE tin prices hit bottom and rebounded; downstream enterprises were cautious in restocking [SMM Tin Morning News]

July 10, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) rebounded after hitting bottom in the night session, fluctuating upward to around 264,300 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.28% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Apple ranked first among the top five producers in terms of global PC shipment growth in Q2 2025. The company shipped 6.2 million Macs, up 21.4% YoY from 5.1 million, far exceeding other major PC makers. (Bullish★) (2) In July, domestic monitor sales exceeded expectations during the "618" promotion, but demand entered an adjustment period post-promotion, compounded by tightening subsidy policies that further dampened consumption. In North America, rising manufacturing costs passed through to retail prices weakened end-use market performance, prompting brands to prioritize inventory control. With tariff exemptions nearing expiration, potential policy adjustments may disrupt supply chains, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and cautious panel procurement. Overall demand is expected to contract MoM. (Bearish★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an "online window for reporting issues related to key automakers' payment period commitments" on the 9th. The window accepts four types of complaints: key automakers failing to honor the 60-day payment commitment by exceeding this period in procurement contracts; setting unreasonable payment start dates; delaying inspection/acceptance certificates to extend payment terms; or making payments contingent on third-party receipts/proportional payments. (Bullish★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, lowering operating rates for some producers. Electronics: End-users in south China entered the off-season amid high tin prices, sustaining only essential orders amid strong wait-and-see sentiment. Other sectors: Steady demand for tinplate and chemicals without unexpected growth.

Spot market: Traders reported lukewarm spot transactions yesterday despite SHFE tin prices briefly hitting 260,000 yuan. Most downstream enterprises restocked cautiously, with the majority trading 1-2 truckloads and a few exceeding 3 truckloads.
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